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The situation in the Middle East is escalating, causing massive disruptions to maritime shipping. Maersk and Hapag-Lloyd have suspended all ship passages through the Strait of Hormuz until further notice. CMA CGM instructed all ships in the Gulf or bound for the Gulf to seek shelter. In addition, passage through the Suez Canal has been suspended until further notice, and ships are being diverted via the Cape of Good Hope. MSC has announced that it is suspending all freight bookings to the Middle East until further notice. It has instructed all ships in the Gulf region and those en route there to sail to safe areas. This is resulting in additional costs. With the escalation in the Middle East, hopes are fading that the capacity situation in container shipping will ease. Depending on how the conflict develops, freight rates, which have been falling since the summer, could now rise sharply again. Massive security surcharges on freight have been announced for goods already in transit to ports of destination in the Gulf region. Carriers are demanding up to 4,000 US dollars per container in additional charges.

In addition, Hapag-Lloyd has announced that it will increase sea freight rates from Northern Europe to India and the Middle East. This increase will apply to voyages commencing on or after 1 April 2026. CMA CGM also intends to levy an emergency conflict surcharge for freight to and from Iraq, Bahrain, Kuwait, Yemen, Qatar, Oman, the UAE, Saudi Arabia, Jordan, Djibouti, Sudan and Eritrea, as well as for the Red Sea port of Ain Sokhna.

Since the outbreak of fighting around Iran, marine fuel prices have climbed to their highest level since October 2023. At the Rotterdam bunker site, the price of marine gas oil (MGO), the common marine diesel fuel, rose from $720 per ton on 27 February to $944 on 3 March, an increase of 31.2 per cent.

Air freight has been hit hard too. The three most important hubs in the Gulf region – Dubai, Abu Dhabi and Doha – have ceased operations. The airspace over Iran, Israel, Bahrain, Qatar and Kuwait is closed; only limited flight operations are taking place over Jordan and Lebanon. There is currently no prospect of reopening. Meanwhile, Iran’s retaliatory strikes have damaged several international airports, including Dubai International Airport, one of the central global air freight hubs, and Abu Dhabi Zayed International Airport.

According to Rotate, capacity on routes from European hubs to airports in the Middle East was 64 per cent below the corresponding figure for the previous week on 2 March; in the opposite direction, the decline was 60 per cent. The slump affects around half of all global routes. Cascading effects mean that transport regions away from the war zone are also affected.

The war has driven up kerosene prices worldwide within a few days. In the week leading up to 27 February, the average price of aviation fuel was 785 US dollars per ton, but by 4 March the index had already risen to 1,372 dollars per ton, an increase of around 75 per cent.

Source: DVZ