Speculation about container shipping lines returning to the Red Sea increases - ceasefire creates new momentum

Since the end of 2023, almost all major container shipping lines have avoided the route through the Red Sea and the Suez Canal due to ongoing security risks. Instead, they are bypassing the Cape of Good Hope - with a noticeable impact on transit times and freight rates. A recently surprisingly announced ceasefire is now raising new questions about a possible return to the original route.

US President Donald Trump announced a ceasefire between the US and the Houthi militia in Yemen during a meeting with Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney in the Oval Office. In a casual remark, Trump stated that the Houthis had ‘surrendered’ and signaled that they would no longer attack merchant ships in future.

The Houthi militia itself has not yet officially confirmed a comprehensive ceasefire. Industry experts see this as a more complex development - especially in light of a potential indirect link between the agreement and the current relationship between the US and Iran, which is considered a supporter of the Houthis.

Whether and when the carriers will actually return to the route through the Red Sea remains to be seen. What is clear, however, is that a stabilisation of the situation could have far-reaching consequences for global supply chains and freight rates in container shipping.